lucas_btc_

@lucas_btc_ · every call recorded, losses included

Season 1Season 1 · Jul 22 to Sep 30 · earlier calls at the bottom of the page
ProfitEvery call risks 1 unit. A win at 40¢ pays +1.5 units, a loss is -1. This is the running total; calls sold early count what was actually realized.
+6.73u
21 priced calls
YieldAverage profit per call, as a percent of the 1-unit stake. Staying positive over many calls is the skill signal; win rate alone is not.
+32%
per call
RecordWins and losses over settled calls. The sample size is always shown: a win rate only means something alongside it.
165
76% of 21
FormMost recent settled calls, newest on the right.
WWWWW
W5 streak

Season equity curve

21 graded
06.7+6.7u
Cumulative units over graded calls (flat 1u stake, step per call; pending calls never move the curve).

Open calls (2)

Como: Federico Arnaboldi v Juan Pablo VarillasJuan Pablo Varillas @ 66¢now 72.5¢pending
sports Como: Federico Arnaboldi vs Juan Pablo Varillas Juan Pablo Varillas wins Reasoning: Varillas is coming off a really good win over a promising young clay-court player and should be feeling confident. He has loads of experience on clay, and that gives him the edge in this matchup Extra: Varillas wins 2–0 #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-942912
Posted
Mon, 31 Aug 2026 20:30:09 UTC
Como: Thiago Seyboth Wild v Martin KrumichThiago Seyboth Wild @ 58¢now 58.5¢pending
sports Como: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Martin Krumich Thiago Seyboth Wild wins Reasoning: Wild has way more experience on clay and comes into this one with some solid results on his best surface. He’s the more aggressive player with more variety in his game. #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-933296
Posted
Mon, 31 Aug 2026 14:10:15 UTC

Season record (23)

Porto: Thiago Monteiro v Kimmer CoppejansThiago Monteiro @ 54¢+85%win
sports Porto: Thiago Monteiro vs Kimmer Coppejans Thiago Monteiro wins Reasoning: This one looks pretty close, but Monteiro is more aggressive and has loads of experience on clay. His fitness can be a big factor in a long match, so I’m giving Thiago the slight edge here #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-933304
Posted
Mon, 31 Aug 2026 13:57:34 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Thiago Monteiro.
US Open ATP: Nuno Borges v Learner TienLearner Tien @ 66¢+52%win
sports US Open ATP: Nuno Borges vs Learner Tien Learner Tien wins Reasoning: Both guys have been playing well lately, but Tien looks more comfortable on hard courts right now. He beat Borges the last time they played, and playing at home with the crowd behind him is a nice extra edge #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-924355
Posted
Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:41:47 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Learner Tien.
Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery v Ignacio BuseIgnacio Buse @ 45¢+122%win
sports Winston-Salem Open: Arthur Fery vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse wins Reasoning: Buse has been playing aggressively and comes into the final on a really solid run. He’s looking more comfortable on hard courts with every match, and that can give him the edge here #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-929302
Posted
Sat, 29 Aug 2026 20:03:27 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Ignacio Buse.
Augsburg: Cezar Cretu v Sandro KoppCezar Cretu @ 44¢+127%win
https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-921753 sports Augsburg: Cezar Cretu vs Sandro Kopp Cezar Cretu wins Reasoning: This should be a close match, with both players having a good run in the tournament. Cretu has looked physically sharp and I’m giving him the slight edge here. #nfa
Posted
Fri, 28 Aug 2026 12:31:10 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Cezar Cretu.
Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo v Ignacio BuseIgnacio Buse @ 45¢+122%win
sports Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-918174 Ignacio Buse wins Reasoning: This should be a close one, but I’m giving Buse the slight edge on Winston-Salem’s quicker hard court. Both players are more comfortable on clay, but Buse’s aggressive game can make the difference here. #nfa
Posted
Thu, 27 Aug 2026 20:19:03 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Ignacio Buse.
Winston-Salem Open: Benjamin Bonzi v Botic van de ZandschulpBotic van de Zandschulp @ 63.5¢-100%loss
sports Winston-Salem Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp wins Reasoning: Botic is coming into this one on a really strong winning run. His first serve has been solid, he’s been hitting plenty of aces, and he’s faced tougher opponents in recent matches with some good wins #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-918167
Posted
Thu, 27 Aug 2026 12:51:54 UTC
Outcome
Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Winston-Salem Open: Daniel Altmaier v Ignacio BuseIgnacio Buse @ 56¢+79%win
sports Winston-Salem Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse wins Reasoning: Ignacio is younger and more aggressive, which could give him an edge on Winston-Salem’s fast hard courts. Both players are more comfortable on clay and are still adapting to hard courts, but I’m giving Buse use the slight advantage here. #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-912719
Posted
Wed, 26 Aug 2026 16:48:48 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Ignacio Buse.
Winston-Salem Open: Hugo Grenier v Sebastian BaezSebastian Baez @ 79¢+27%win
sports Winston-Salem Open: Hugo Grenier vs Sebastian Baez Sebastian Baez wins Reasoning: Baez is coming off a run to the final in his last tournament, so he should have plenty of momentum. He’s younger, more intense, and has a strong return game, which gives him the edge here #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-908231
Posted
Tue, 25 Aug 2026 13:46:52 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Sebastian Baez.
Winston-Salem Open: Benjamin Bonzi v Quentin HalysQuentin Halys @ 62¢-100%loss
sports Winston-Salem Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Quentin Halys Quentin Halys wins Reasoning: Quentin is coming off a strong run in Cincinnati, has an excellent first serve, and has been hitting more aces than his opponent. He’s also in better form right now #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-906976
Posted
Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:47:14 UTC
Outcome
Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
US Open, Qualification ATP: Luca Nardi v Federico CinaLuca Nardi @ 35¢-100%loss
sports US Open Qualifying (ATP): Luca Nardi vs Federico Cina Luca Nardi wins Reasoning: Even though Nardi is still finding his rhythm after a recent injury, he has more experience, especially on hard courts. He wins, but it will be a tough match #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-898603
Posted
Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:35:39 UTC
Outcome
Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Winston-Salem Open: Jenson Brooksby v Stefanos TsitsipasStefanos Tsitsipas @ 60¢+67%win
sports Winston-Salem Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Stefanos Tsitsipas wins Reasoning: Tsitsipas has more experience and a stronger serve, especially on his first serve. He should be highly motivated to use this tournament as preparation for the US Open and build confidence. Wins 2–0. #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-898547
Posted
Mon, 24 Aug 2026 14:21:15 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Winston-Salem Open: Daniel Altmaier v Francisco ComesanaDaniel Altmaier @ 49¢+104%win
sports Winston-Salem Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Francisco Comesana Daniel Altmaier wins Reasoning: Altmaier has more experience than his opponent, especially on hard courts. He’s also played more matches on this surface recently, so he should be better prepared for this matchup #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-898620
Posted
Mon, 24 Aug 2026 14:05:32 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Daniel Altmaier.
Winston-Salem Open: Lorenzo Sonego v Vit KoprivaLorenzo Sonego @ 57¢void
https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-890573 sports Winston-Salem Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Vit Kopriva Lorenzo Sonego wins Reasoning: This should be a close matchup between two experienced players, but I’m giving Sonego the slight edge because of his stronger serve Extra: Sonego will have more aces than his opponent by the end of match. #nfa
Posted
Mon, 24 Aug 2026 13:47:36 UTC
Outcome
Voided: the market did not settle as a win or a loss, so the call scores 0.
UFC Fight Night: Serghei Spivac v Vitor Petrino (Heavyweight, Main Card)Vitor Petrino @ 59¢+69%win
sports UFC Fight Night: Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino (Heavyweight, Main Card) Vitor Petrino wins Reasoning: Petrino is the better and more skilled striker. If he can keep the fight standing and defend Spivac’s takedown attempts, I think he gets the unanimous decision win https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-817945 #nfa
Posted
Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:25:44 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Vitor Petrino.
UFC Fight Night: Jamall Emmers v Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims)Lerryan Douglas @ 78¢-100%loss
sports UFC Fight Night: Jamall Emmers vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims) Lerryan Douglas wins Reasoning: Douglas is an exciting prospect coming off five straight wins. He has the sharper boxing and does a great job defending takedowns, so I think he gets the finish by KO in the second round #nfa
Posted
Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:02:01 UTC
Outcome
Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Cincinnati Open: Diana Shnaider v Elena RybakinaElena Rybakina @ 70¢+43%win
sports Cincinnati Open: Diana Shnaider vs Elena Rybakina Elena Rybakina wins Reasoning: Rybakina has more experience and is currently ranked no. 2 in the WTA rankings. She’s also fighting for the no. 1 spot, and her stronger serve and advantage in aces could make the difference here https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-868958 #nfa
Posted
Wed, 19 Aug 2026 18:37:47 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Elena Rybakina.
Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka v Sara BejlekAryna Sabalenka @ 85¢-100%loss
sports Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sara Bejlek Aryna Sabalenka wins Reasoning: Sabalenka is coming off a comfortable win, has way more experience and should be feeling confident. She’s also fighting with Elena Rybakina for the no. 1 spot in the WTA rankings, which should give her extra motivation in this match #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-873946
Posted
Wed, 19 Aug 2026 13:36:22 UTC
Outcome
Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
Cincinnati Open: Andrey Rublev v Nuno BorgesNuno Borges @ 36.5¢+174%win
sports Cincinnati Open: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges Nuno Borges wins Reasoning: Borges is coming off a great win and should be feeling confident. Rublev hasn’t looked very consistent on hard courts, so I can see Borges getting the upset here https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-862071 #nfa
Posted
Tue, 18 Aug 2026 13:02:57 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Nuno Borges.
Cincinnati Open: Janice Tjen v Mirra AndreevaMirra Andreeva @ 86¢+16%win
sports Cincinnati Open: Janice Tjen vs Mirra Andreeva https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-861853 Mirra Andreeva wins Reasoning: Mirra Andreeva comes into this match with strong momentum as she looks to continue her winning run. She won her previous match comfortably, while her opponent had a more difficult performance #nfa
Posted
Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:05:09 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Mirra Andreeva.
Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka v Xinyu Wangnot counted: entry 91¢ above the 90¢ maximumAryna Sabalenka @ 91¢+10%win
sports Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Xinyu Wang Aryna Sabalenka wins Reasoning: Aryna Sabalenka’s extensive experience and strong performance in her previous match should give her renewed confidence and momentum in this matchup https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-861854 #nfa
Posted
Tue, 18 Aug 2026 11:46:55 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Aryna Sabalenka.
Show all 23
Cincinnati Open: Iga Swiatek v Maria SakkariIga Swiatek @ 87¢+15%win
sports Cincinnati Open: Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Iga Swiatek wins Reasoning: Iga is coming off a recent title in Toronto, which should give her confidence and momentum heading into this matchup. #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-861852
Posted
Mon, 17 Aug 2026 13:56:52 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Iga Swiatek.
Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul v Adolfo VallejoTommy Paul @ 80¢+25%win
sports Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Vallejo Tommy Paul wins Reasoning: Tommy Paul has more experience, home-court advantage and strong hard-court game. #nfa https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-857575
Posted
Mon, 17 Aug 2026 13:42:18 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Tommy Paul.
National Bank Open: Ben Shelton v Brandon NakashimaBen Shelton @ 68.5¢+46%win
sports National Bank Open: Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima Ben Shelton wins Reasoning: Ben Shelton has been having an excellent run in this tournament https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-842196 #nfa
Posted
Thu, 13 Aug 2026 20:19:46 UTC
Outcome
Won: the market resolved for Ben Shelton.