Methodology

What counts as a call

• A message in #prediction-alpha tagged #nfa by its author. The tag is the caller’s explicit opt-in; untagged messages are never boarded, however confident they sound.
• The tag may sit in the caller’s own adjacent message within 5 minutes (link / pick / tag split across messages is fine).
• A jup.ag market link must pin the exact market, and the side must be stated in a recognizable form.
• One call per (message, market, side).

Identity

Callers are identified by Discord account id, not by name. Usernames and display names change; the id doesn’t. Attribution is mechanical: the account that posted the message owns the call.

Grading

• Positions closed early grade on realized PnL: entry to exit. A call the market later resolved against can still be a win if the caller exited in profit, and vice versa. To close a position, post #close as a reply to your original call, or naming the side. The exit price is the contract price at the moment you posted (from the order book’s minute history, not when the bot got around to reading it): above entry grades win, below grades loss, dead-equal voids. If it’s ambiguous which open call you meant, it goes to review instead of guessing.
• No hindsight: a call is never graded from an outcome that was already decided when the message was posted.
• Grading follows official market resolution with a 48-hour dispute window after grading. Upheld disputes are corrected and published like every other correction.

Scoring

• Flat 1-unit stake per call. A loss is −1u. A win pays implied odds: entry 40¢ returns +1.5u; entry 80¢ returns +0.25u. Backing favorites can lose money at a high win rate; that’s the point.
• Profit (units) ranks the board. Yield (average return per priced call) is the skill signal. Win rate is always shown with its sample size and never ranks anything.
• The priced sample is symmetric: only calls with a captured entry count toward units, wins and losses alike.
• Ranked requires 10 graded calls; until then a caller is Rising (visible, unranked; hiding small samples invites survivorship bias).
• Pending calls don’t count until graded.

Coverage

All #nfa-tagged messages in #prediction-alpha are captured continuously. Absence of a call means it wasn’t tagged or didn’t parse. Open positions can be closed early by posting #close (as a reply to the original call, or naming the side): the exit is priced at the moment the #close was posted, and the call grades on realized PnL instead of waiting for resolution.