Verified: message id, word-for-word text, market link and entry price all captured when the call was posted.
Original Discord message, word for word
Taking Colombia **To Advance** at 61 cents. #NFA
Record
- Posted
- Tue, 07 Jul 2026 07:57:39 UTC
- Event start
- Sun, 19 Jul 2026 19:00:00 UTC
- Entry
- 61¢
Outcome
Lost: the market resolved against this pick.
v1 grading note: Jul 7 · “Taking Colombia **To Advance** at 61 cents. #NFA” (msg 1523961180094201908, author macxprime) — Colombia to advance (WC ’26 knockout futures) · captured via ClickHouse reconciliation (1B) · stated entry 61¢ matches gamma stage-of-elimination R16 “No” price 0.605 at capture · NO HINDSIGHT: Colombia already cleared Group + R32 (both closed on gamma before pick time — R32 elim market resolved No), so “to advance” grades on the NEXT still-open hurdle = win the Round of 16 tie; grade via gamma world-cup-colombia-stage-of-elimination “Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16? = No” · LOSS: Switzerland 0-0 Colombia (4-3 pens, Jul 7) — Colombia eliminated in R16, did NOT advance (ESPN/CNN/FIFA + gamma R16-elimination Yes 0.995 umaResolutionStatus proposed)
Verification details
- Message id
1523961180094201908open in Discord ↗ (requires server membership)- Market
POLY-569758jup.ag ↗- Capture
- Jul 7 · “Taking Colombia **To Advance** at 61 cents. #NFA” (msg 1523961180094201908, author macxprime) — Colombia to advance (WC ’26 knockout futures) · captured via ClickHouse reconciliation (1B) · stated entry 61¢ matches gamma stage-of-elimination R16 “No” price 0.605 at capture · NO HINDSIGHT: Colombia already cleared Group + R32 (both closed on gamma before pick time — R32 elim market resolved No), so “to advance” grades on the NEXT still-open hurdle = win the Round of 16 tie; grade via gamma world-cup-colombia-stage-of-elimination “Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16? = No” · LOSS: Switzerland 0-0 Colombia (4-3 pens, Jul 7) — Colombia eliminated in R16, did NOT advance (ESPN/CNN/FIFA + gamma R16-elimination Yes 0.995 umaResolutionStatus proposed)
#359). Corrections are published, never silent: see methodology.