vince.Verified: message id, word-for-word text, market link and entry price all captured when the call was posted.
Original Discord message, word for word
Bitcoin above ___ on August 17? 64.000 20c **Confidence 6/10** #nfa #dyior https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-828453
Record
- Posted
- Mon, 17 Aug 2026 13:50:45 UTC
- Entry
- 21.3¢ → sold 63.5¢ (closed early; scored on the sale price)Entry 21.3¢: the price the Buy button actually charged the moment the call was posted. The caller wrote 20¢, but that price was not there to buy.
Outcome
Closed early by the caller at 63.5¢, +42.2¢ on the 21.3¢ entry.
closed early via #close (msg 1538932731298316419, posted 2026-08-17T15:29:15.129Z): entry 21.3c -> exit 37.3c (+16.0c realized); CLOB history 0.3725 at 2026-08-17T15:28:13.000Z (62s from post); "#close" | RE-PRICED 2026-08-17: exit 37.3c -> 63.5c from the trade tape (taker sold this outcome at 63c, 0s from the post). The 37.3c was a midpoint sample from 15:28:13, 62s before the close and before the market spiked: sales of this side printed 62-77c across 15:29:04-15:29:27, including 63.5c at his exact close second. The tape had not indexed when the close was processed; the grade worker now revisits such closes.
Verification details
- Message id
1538907946032042024open in Discord ↗ (requires server membership)- Market
POLY-828453jup.ag ↗- Capture
- auto-captured: #nfa + jup.ag link; side matched to outcome of "Bitcoin above ___ on August 17?"; side inferred from the linked event: only "64,000 yes" is referenced outside the matchup phrase; entry 21.3¢ from the order-book ask at post time (caller stated 20¢)
#1346). Corrections are published, never silent: see methodology.